Energy price shock and disappointing jobs report

The surge in oil prices will be a negative for the economy, with domestic oil producers unlikely to raise production until it is clear that Middle East disruptions, and the resulting elevated prices, will persist. Meanwhile, February’s weak jobs report somewhat undermines the idea that the labour market is rebounding strongly, but on its own is unlikely to change the Fed’s near-term calculus with the unemployment rate only edging up to a still-muted 4.4%.