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RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4)

Market sentiment remained close to cyclical lows, with rental and capital value expectations deeply negative for office and retail. But there are signs that the market is nearing a turning point, with a growing share of surveyors perceiving the market to be in the early stages of an upturn.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Apr.)

Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few months. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

16 May 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever

Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South means that, even if that migration persists, we do not think that rents in those markets will necessarily outperform. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

12 May 2022

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports

Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we expect that to be only a temporary switch, a view backed up by recent data. And the return of container ships to the West Coast will drive a resurgence in demand for its industrial markets. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

11 May 2022

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US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.

30 June 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.

29 June 2021
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