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Mortgage Lending (Sep.)

September’s lending data show another increase in house purchase approvals. But looking ahead, with the economy looking increasingly fragile, lending is likely to fall back once the pent-up demand from earlier this year is exhausted.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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More from UK Housing

UK Housing Market Update

Rental growth approaching a peak

Record high rental growth at the start of the year is likely to mark a peak given signs that tenant demand is starting to ease. But strong wage growth and the rising cost of buying as mortgage rates rise mean rental growth is set to ease rather than collapse. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns today at 10:00 ET/15:00 BST. Register now.

19 May 2022

UK Housing Market Outlook

House prices heading for a fall

If we are right that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates to 3.00% to stamp out inflation then we are on the cusp of the fastest increase in mortgage rates since the late 1980s. That caused house prices to fall by 20%. But the tight labour market, lower loan-to-value ratios, and a lower peak in interest rates mean the drop in prices should be less dramatic this time. We expect house prices to fall by 5% over the next two years, reversing a fifth of the increase since the pandemic began.

13 May 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.)

The housing market shrugged off the effects of rising mortgage rates and the cost-of-living crisis in April as intense competition between buyers bid up prices further. However, with mortgage rates set to increase sharply over the rest of the year, the days of the pandemic house price boom are now numbered.  

12 May 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.

30 June 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.

29 June 2021
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