Higher r* - bigger fiscal challenge, headwind for real asset prices

As our new higher estimate of the real neutral interest rate, or r*, for 2030 appears to be above the assumption priced into the financial markets, we think that in the 2030s 10-year gilt yields will be higher than widely anticipated and real equity/property prices will be a bit lower. Higher gilt yields also make the UK’s long-term fiscal outlook even more challenging.

We'll be discussion the implications of the end of the ultra-low interest rates era and the rise in r* in an online Drop-In at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday 31st October. (Register here.)