Nordics set for shallowest recessions in Europe

The Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis comparatively well, and if our above-consensus forecasts for GDP growth this year prove accurate, the region will see some of the smallest falls in output in the whole of Europe. We forecast output in Denmark and Norway to fall by about 3% this year, and while Sweden has not been unscathed, despite its light-touch lockdown, the fact that the economy grew in Q1 sets the stage for an even smaller contraction. Switzerland has been hit harder, but it is facing a comparatively modest downturn by European standards, more akin to that in Germany than the worst-affected countries.
David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
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