Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin

We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We await the publication of the weekly sight deposit by the SNB on Monday to confirm our suspicions that the Bank has seen enough. But if the SNB is to avoid adding substantially to its already-bloated balance sheet, it will be hoping – like the rest of us – that Omicron fears blow over soon. Next week, we expect data to show that mainland GDP in Norway rose by about 0.2% m/m in October and that core inflation remained well below target in November.

3 December 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc

Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against the euro in the near term. But any upside is limited, and the balance of risks is tilted towards depreciation in 2022. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Nordic and Swiss Economics Update to clients of our FX Market Service.

1 December 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next to no chance of the SNB tightening policy anytime soon, and the big question mark is when it might intervene.

1 December 2021

More from Michael Tran

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (July)

Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022.

30 July 2021

European Data Response

EC Survey (July)

Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow across all sectors. That said, we expect inflation to fall back sharply once these shortages dissipate.

29 July 2021
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