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MENA

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

18th June 2024

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as oil prices fall back and it becomes more difficult to sustain loose fiscal policy. Outside of the Gulf, macro imbalances are easing. But this remains contingent on governments continuing reforms and keeping policy tight, which will weigh on the pace of recoveries.

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