Higher gold price forecast, but big picture unchanged

We have revised up our end-2020 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver as we now expect a smaller rise in US Treasury yields next year. That said, we retain our view that a softening in safe-haven and consumer demand will cause the prices of gold and silver to fall back in 2020.
Franziska Palmas Markets Economist
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Industrial Metals Update

Green transition to help charge cobalt prices

Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022.

2 December 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Oct.)

Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but weaker domestic demand will act as a disincentive.

23 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)

October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output will remain high over the rest of this year, incentivised by the high price. However, we expect that the slowing of the Chinese construction sector will weigh on demand and prices in 2022.

22 November 2021

More from Franziska Palmas

Capital Daily

Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields

Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We expect yields to rise in the euro-zone as well, but by less than in the US. Today’s ECB decision supports this view.

10 June 2021

Global Markets Update

Assessing the outlook for EM monetary policy & LC bonds

While we expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to increase as the US 10-year Treasury yield resumes its rise, we think increases in yields will generally be smaller than in the US. This reflects our view that most EM central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently anticipate.

4 June 2021

Capital Daily

We expect credit spreads to remain low, with some exceptions

We think sovereign and corporate credit spreads will generally remain lows in the next two years. The main exceptions are sovereign credit spreads in Latin America, Emerging Europe and Africa, which we expect to rise substantially.

27 May 2021
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