The continued surge in daily infections makes it highly likely that states of emergency will be declared again for at least the hard hit prefectures of Osaka and Hyogo. If the spread intensifies further and draconian measures are required across densely populated parts of the country, then that would send the recovery in activity this quarter into reverse. But despite the crawling start to the over-65s vaccine rollout this week, we still expect a strong economic recovery in the second half of the year. Weekly vaccine deliveries are now rising sharply and are scheduled to surge in May.
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