Global Economics

Global Inflation Watch

15 June, 2018

Inflation outlook is benign

Inflation in most major advanced economies is likely to trend towards 2% over the next couple of years. Despite record-low unemployment rates, wage inflation is likely to remain fairly weak in most countries. In addition, oil prices are likely to decline. Even the tariffs which the US has imposed or threatened are unlikely to have much impact on prices. In the US, we expect core inflation to rise to around 2½% next year, but to drop back in 2020 as a result of the monetary tightening which is now

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