A vote by the UK to leave the European Union would come as a major surprise and could trigger significant market turmoil. This would probably lead to the Bank of England keeping monetary policy looser for longer than it would otherwise have done. But we doubt that it would have any bearing on the ECB’s policy, which is likely to be eased further anyway in the coming months, and whatever the outcome of the referendum, the Fed looks on track to raise rates twice before year-end.
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