Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary

The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in rates is still some way off. That peak is closer for the Fed, but rate cuts seem unlikely for another year. Among the advanced economies, we think that the Bank of Canada is closest to a full pivot into loosening mode.

Global Economics Drop-In (8^th November): The global economy is heading for recession as tightening bites. Join this 20-minute online briefing to find out which economies will be hit hardest, the outlook for inflation and central bank actions, and the downside risks ahead. Register here.