Euro-zone Hourly Labour Costs (Q1)

Average hourly labour cost growth slowed in Q1, and we expect wage growth to remain subdued over the coming years. This will keep underlying inflationary pressures down.
Jack Allen-Reynolds Senior Europe Economist
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European Economics Weekly

Reopening effects to persist in Q3

The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that the ECB will struggle with excessively low inflation over the medium term. Next week we expect to learn that euro-zone retail sales rose again in June and the Composite PMIs for Spain and Italy increased in July.
 

30 July 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2)

After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.  

30 July 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (July)

Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022.

30 July 2021

More from Jack Allen-Reynolds

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (May)

Euro-zone retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in May. And as Covid restrictions continue to be lifted, spending in the services sector is recovering very rapidly, which will provide a significant boost to household consumption and GDP.

6 July 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June)

The further strengthening of the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 15-year high in June underlines that the economy is rebounding quickly. Alongside this recovery, price pressures are continuing to build. But we still think that they will fade in 2022.

23 June 2021

European Economics Update

Is the ECB over-optimistic on growth?

The ECB made significant upward revisions to its GDP forecasts last week, presumably encouraged by the recent experience of other economies. The Bank also seems to have come round to our view that the pandemic will not leave deep, lasting scars on the economy.

15 June 2021
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