Euro-zone Flash HICP (July)

Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Economics Update

Revising down our Q4 growth forecast

Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are still to the downside. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty, Q1 looks set to be weak too.

8 December 2021

European Economics Update

Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end

The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the underlying strength of domestic demand and an increase in net trade will allow a swift recovery once the pandemic restrictions are lifted again.

8 December 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3)

Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems constraining output, the economy looks set for a very weak fourth quarter.

7 December 2021

More from Michael Tran

European Data Response

EC Survey (July)

Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow across all sectors. That said, we expect inflation to fall back sharply once these shortages dissipate.

29 July 2021
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