The surprisingly large rise in Hungarian inflation in June to its highest rate in almost nine years suggests that the risks to our interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. Elsewhere, the discord at the OPEC+ meeting this week has raised the risk that the current deal falls apart. For Russia, a surge in oil production would provide a mechanical boost to GDP growth, but the accompanying slump in oil prices would probably result in less supportive fiscal policy and a sharp drop in the ruble may trigger even more monetary tightening than we currently anticipate.
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