CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle

The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will push on with further interest rate hikes in the coming months. Meanwhile, data out of Turkey suggest that the widening current account deficit is being financed by unrecorded capital flows. This doesn’t change our view that the country’s external risks remain elevated. But with politics in the driving seat, a rate cut at the CBRT meeting next week seems the most likely outcome.