Corporate Strategist: Global

Corporate Strategist: Global Insight

9 July, 2018

The damage from a global trade war

Assessing the damage from a global trade war is tricky because there are few historical precedents and the costs would depend on the nature of the conflict. But our best guess is that, if all governments imposed blanket tariffs of around 25% on all imports, world GDP would decline by 2-3% compared to a no-conflict scenario. These costs would be heavily concentrated in a few sectors and countries.

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