The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is likely to extend into the first half of 2024 but fizzle out by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, despite all the talk about ‘derisking’ from China, the country’s share of global trade looks to have risen last year. It remains to be seen if it can hold on to those gains, however, given that some of the recent props to China’s export growth appear to be temporary.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services