US Economics Weekly Fed won’t ignore faster wage growth We don’t place much weight on the idea that the Fed would be happy to leave interest rates at near-zero until wage growth returned to 4%. Instead, we believe that a pick-up in wage growth to between 2... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly ACA makes consumption look healthier The Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare”, remains a contentious piece of legislation, but the fact of the matter is that it boosted real consumption growth in January and will probably support it in... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Congress finally gives the economy some breathing room Most of the recent weakness in housing activity is due to the unusually bad weather rather than the lagged effects of last year’s rise in mortgage rates. While higher mortgage rates have clearly taken... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the housing recovery crumbling? Most of the recent weakness in housing activity is due to the unusually bad weather rather than the lagged effects of last year’s rise in mortgage rates. While higher mortgage rates have clearly taken... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Five challenges for the new Fed Chair In her semi-annual monetary policy testimonies to Congress this week, we expect new Fed Chair Janet Yellen to emphasise that the weak tone of some of the incoming data and the turmoil in emerging... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to ignore emerging market turmoil The Fed is only concerned with the US economy's performance and the recent bout of emerging market turmoil poses little threat to that. It is worth remembering that despite the currency crises which... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A little help from overseas The rebound in US export growth late last year can be linked directly to strengthening demand in both China and the euro-zone. Given that growth in China is now slowing and that the dollar is... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic outlook brightening Our latest calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as much as 3.5%. (We have raised our estimate from 3.0% on the back of the release of December's retail sales figures and November's... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy will avoid a deep freeze The unusually cold winter weather may take some of the heat out of the economic recovery, but the adverse impact will be small for two reasons. First, the hit to activity will be cushioned by... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly New Year optimism is justified this time 2014 could be the year that the economic recovery finally kicks into a higher gear. The big difference is that the headwinds that have hampered growth in recent years are fading, while the tailwinds... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tapering was always going to be a damp squib We weren’t surprised by the Fed’s decision to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases, but we didn’t anticipate that it might not halt those purchases completely until late next year. As the... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong pace of sales growth also supports QE taper Last week we learned that business inventories and sales both posted sizeable gains in October, while the retail sales figures showed another decent gain in November. As a result, we now expect fourth... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth gathering momentum Last week's upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth to 3.6% annualised, from the initial 2.8% estimate, prompted a number of forecasters to lower their forecasts for fourth-quarter GDP growth, in... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Cutting the IOER rate would be too risky Cutting the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may seem like a simple way for the Fed to signal its intent to leave short rates at near-zero for several more years, at the same time as it begins... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed looking to change the mix rather than stance of policy The Fed is clearly looking to offset the market impact from any decision to wind down its asset purchases by strengthening its commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero for several more years... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
