US Economics Weekly Fed to complete QE taper with GDP growth still strong Recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases this week, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The bottom line is that... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US recovery relatively immune to global slowdown We don’t think that the US will catch the latest economic cold that is currently afflicting Europe and parts of Asia. It’s worth remembering that the US is a fairly closed economy, which means it’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in small business lending to gather pace The main reason why the stock of loans to small businesses has yet to surpass its previous peak is because weak sales have restrained the demand for new borrowing. The recent rise in the NFIB small... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook brightening The recent fall in equity prices and stagnation in house prices has not taken much of the gloss off the strengthening in the other economic news. As such, the economic outlook is even brighter now... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption growth set to accelerate Consumption growth has been remarkably stable at around 2% since the recovery began in mid-2009. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the pick-up in income growth and past gains in householdwealth will... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal We expect this week’s release of the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter to reveal thatgrowth rebounded at an annualised rate of 3.2% after the 2.9% contraction in the first quarter... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but a range of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
