US Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2014 Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economy Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Expansion of health insurance not boosting wider economy Although 10 million more people now have health insurance following the introduction of the ACAprovisions last year, the data suggest that trends in healthcare consumption and inflation have... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising wage growth confirms labour slack is shrinking Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to complete QE taper with GDP growth still strong Recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases this week, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The bottom line is that... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US recovery relatively immune to global slowdown We don’t think that the US will catch the latest economic cold that is currently afflicting Europe and parts of Asia. It’s worth remembering that the US is a fairly closed economy, which means it’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
