US Economics Weekly Odds of a rate hike this year even lower now The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates before the end of this year tumbled again last week, as the incoming data triggered some sizeable downgrades to estimates of third-quarter GDP growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outcome of TPP deal irrelevant for US outlook The big news last week was the announcement of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the US and 11 other countries, which aims to lower trade barriers and set common commercial... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay rate hike until early 2016 The incoming economic data have been a lot more mixed recently, with the awful performance of exports and manufacturing, both dragged down by the dollar’s strength, now being compounded by a slowdown... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty back to the top of the agenda This week it will be uncertainty over fiscal policy and a possible Federal government shutdown that dominates the headlines. Congress needs to pass a continuing spending resolution by the end of... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fooling itself if it thinks uncertainty will ever clear The more the Fed procrastinates, the more we get the feeling that officials are fooling themselves into thinking that, if they only just wait a little longer, all the uncertainty will clear up and... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Remaining labour market slack rapidly shrinking The decline in the unemployment rate to only 5.1% in August means that the Fed has arguably already achieved the full employment part of its dual mandate. If there is still any slack left in thel... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Disparity widens between manufacturing & other sectors With less than two weeks to go until the next FOMC meeting, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rates this month are still close to 50-50. The US economic data remain strong, with the notable... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dithering Fed still waiting for perfect conditions We are now assuming that, even if the rally in global stock markets continues, some Fed officials will still want to hold off on raising interest rates until October or even December. A September rate... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed has set a pretty low bar for a rate hike The projections made by Fed officials back in June indicated that they were setting a pretty low bar for hiking interest rates later this year. Nevertheless, despite those low expectations, officials... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly External deflation will be swamped by domestic inflation Last week the markets were very much focused on the potential for a stalling Chinese economy to “export” deflationary pressure to the US, either via the direct impact of a weaker renminbi or through... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed edging closer to first rate hike A September rate hike is looking more and more like a done deal, even though the incoming economic data have been decidedly mixed of late. 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident, second-quarter rebound confirmed The Fed's more upbeat tone on economic conditions in the latest FOMC policy statement was a long way from it ringing the alarm bells on a September lift-off. Nevertheless, it still suggests that the... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand growth poised to accelerate The unexpected decline in June's retail sales was a disappointment and, more generally, the rebound in underlying sales in the second quarter has been weaker than the turnaround last year, when... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed lift-off won't be delayed by Greece or China Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday this week couldn't have been better timed for those wondering whether Greece's potential exit from the euro would... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will GDP growth ever hit 3% again? As things stand now, GDP is on track for a 2.3% increase this year, which would be very similar to the growth rates achieved in 2012, 2013 and 2014. It appears that GDP growth is stuck in a rut. It is... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
