US Economics Weekly Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in inventory-to-sales ratio not a recession signal The rising business inventory-to-sales ratio is not a signal of an imminent recession. The increase in the ratio of some specific components – machinery – is a potential problem. But much of the rise... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes Markets are coming around to the idea that the Fed will raise rates for a second time either next month or in July, but still appear to be unusually sanguine about the prospects of additional rate... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed falling further behind the curve While we didn’t think that the more modest 160,000 increase in payroll employment in April necessarily ruled out the possibility of a June rate hike by the Fed, the increasing probability that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Incoming data point to second-quarter pick-up The incoming data were fairly positive last week. The rebound in the non-manufacturing surveys more than made up for the continuing softness in the manufacturing surveys, while the sharp recovery in... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headwinds restraining GDP growth will fade in H2 Some of the headwinds that restricted first-quarter GDP growth to a paltry 0.5% annualised will fade in the second half of this year. But barring a miracle second-quarter rebound, it appears that GDP... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown in GDP growth won’t be sustained According to our calculations, economic growth slowed to only 0.8% annualised in the first quarter. (Data due on Thursday). That slowdown doesn’t worry us, however, even though economic growth has... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are vehicle sales nearing the finish line? The slowdown in first-quarter real consumption growth is primarily a reflection of the big drop back in motor vehicle sales over the past couple of months. In contrast, domestic motor vehicle... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Potential growth still held back by productivity slump If sustained (admittedly a big if), the recent surge in labour force growth would mean that the US economy’s potential growth rate is arguably higher than most economists currently believe... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What is behind the slowdown in consumption growth? The revelation last week that spending in January was much weaker than initially thought, coupled with the modest increase in February, means that real consumption growth probably slowed to around 2.0... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed adopts cavalier attitude to inflation rebound The downward revision to the Fed’s interest rate projections at the March FOMC meeting, despite little change in the economic projections, has prompted plenty of speculation that its “reaction... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Soft patch in consumption only temporary Last week’s weaker than expected data on retail sales and the drop in utilities production in February suggest that real consumption growth has started the year on a softer footing than initially... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the rise in auto loans a concern? The rapid growth of auto loans in recent years has prompted claims that the next unsustainable debt bubble is emerging. For now, however, there appears to be little cause for concern. Although the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption growth rebounds The slowdown in real consumption growth to a more modest 2.0% annualised in the final quarter of last year was a disappointment, particularly as households were benefitting from a further decline in... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
