US Economics Weekly Is the low level of inflation expectations a concern? The stubbornly-low level of inflation expectations, even as actual inflation has been trending higher, could become a troublesome issue for the Fed. On some measures, household inflation expectations... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could a foreign profit tax pay for Trump’s fiscal plans? The tax plan released by the White House on Wednesday was short on detail, but looked broadly similar to President Donald Trump’s pre-election plan. With the deep cuts to individual income and... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Competitive pressures to weigh on core inflation The unexpected decline in core consumer prices in March is not a signal of sudden weakness in the real economy. Nevertheless, it is partly due to heightened competition in some sectors, which will... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Investment growth to pick up this year First quarter GDP growth is shaping up to be weak again this year, but one bright spot is likely to be a big increase in investment. The rebound in oil prices, continued recovery in the housing market... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of auto sales less alarming than it seems The recent weakness of new motor vehicle sales has been causing a bit of alarm, but there are good reasons to think that fears of a sudden collapse in demand will prove to be overblown. In any case... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by the slump in bank lending? The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump’s agenda gets a reality check The debate over the Republicans’ health care bill last week is the clearest indication yet that implementing President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda won’t be as easy as he may have hoped. Although... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident despite softer start to 2017 The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp last week may initially seem a little hard to square with the apparent weakening in the economic data since the start of the year, with the Atlanta... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to accelerate pace of policy tightening After the Fed’s co-ordinated attempts to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, another 25 basis point hike is fully priced into... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed about to err with another rate hike? Fed officials appear to have embarked on a co-ordinated attempt to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting in mid-March. The improvement in the survey evidence... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tax cuts won’t pay for themselves This Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress, which is the traditional forum for new Presidents to unveil details of their economic plans. With Trump hinting... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business sentiment surges in aftermath of Trump win The rise in the NFIB index in January indicated that, in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s election victory, small business owners were the most optimistic they had been in more than a decade... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Still waiting for clarity on fiscal policy The flurry of executive orders slowed to a crawl last week, suggesting that President Donald Trump and his administration have realised that there are limits on his ability to govern by diktat. If... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Considerable uncertainty over outlook for inflation With base effects helping to lift headline inflation back above 2% in December, we expect an acceleration in wage growth along with a stimulus-fuelled pick-up in GDP growth to drive both headline and... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
