US Economics Weekly Will rising interest rates choke off the expansion? The further rise in 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since 2011 dominated the markets this week and there are signs that the Fed’s policy tightening is starting to feed through to the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Have the tax cuts flopped? The weakness of real consumption growth, which appears to have slowed to only 1% annualised in the first quarter, suggests that the recent tax cuts have so far failed to provide any meaningful boost... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the digital economy raise productivity? Labour productivity growth picked up in 2017 and we suspect that it will rebound a little further over the next couple of years, as rising capacity constraints and the tightening labour market... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade tensions to remain at the top of the agenda The escalating threats over tariffs between the US and China have dominated the headlines this week. But next week could bring the more positive news of a ‘preliminary’ deal on NAFTA. Reports suggest... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter slowdown all about consumption The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s new economic projections implausibly strong During his first post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell managed to signal faster rate hikes over the coming years while simultaneously calming the bond market by playing down the risks... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising prime-age participation a new structural trend The surge in job growth in February, which was fuelled by a rise in new entrants to the labour force, supports the doves’ view that there is still hidden slack in the labour market. But the story isn... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising trade deficit may embolden the protectionists Following the move this week to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high in January is likely to have bolstered President Donald Trump’s... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising Our long-held belief that a rebound in core inflation and faster economic growth, partly due to fiscal stimulus, would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates four times this year is rapidly becoming... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Near-term outlook bright, but tougher times lie ahead With the economy set to receive an additional fiscal boost following the recent deal in Congress to raise the discretionary spending caps, we are revising up our GDP growth forecasts for both this... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in inflation is the real deal The January consumer price data were the clearest sign yet that inflationary pressures are beginning to build. While inflation was boosted by a rebound in clothing prices and a recovery in vehicle... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Easing financial conditions pose a problem for the Fed Despite long-term Treasury yields rising sharply this week to their highest level in four years, broader measures suggest that overall financial conditions have actually continued to loosen. Corporate... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts? The surge in the stock market and wave of firms announcing wage increases and bonuses since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed have fuelled optimism that tax cuts are reviving “animal spirits” and... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Political risks back on the menu Congress may still avoid a partial government shutdown this weekend if another short-term continuing resolution squeaks through a Senate vote. That will keep the lights on for another month, but a... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 2018 maybe not a slam dunk after all The tightening of financial conditions this week provided a timely reminder of the downside risks to the economy this year and next. 2018 won’t necessarily be the slam dunk that many are assuming. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
