US Economics Weekly Slowdown to continue regardless of political drama The impeachment inquiry launched by the House Democrats against President Donald Trump will dominate the headlines over the coming months. It is unlikely to have any major impact on markets or the... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to fix its plumbing problem The Fed voted to cut its key policy rate by another 25bp earlier this week, but it is deeply split over what to do next. Close to one-third of the FOMC is projecting another rate cut before year-end... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to cut despite rising inflation and trade optimism The Fed is almost certain to cut its policy rate by another 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. But rising core inflation, the still-solid incoming activity data and the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets over-react to news of new trade talks In a week of mixed economic data releases, it was the news that the US and China would resume trade talks next month that proved to be the biggest development – pushing the S&P 500 back toward a... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still little sign of trade war drag The trade dispute with China may be escalating at a rapid pace but, despite the concerns of Fed officials, there is still little evidence that this is having a significant impact on the economy. 30th August 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still taking its cue from the bond market Fed officials signalled this week that they are content for now to take their cue from the bond market, with Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech giving a strong hint that a September rate cut is... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumer strength presents a dilemma for the Fed The Trump administration’s surprise announcement this week that it intended to delay the introduction of the 10% tariff on more than $150bn of finished consumer goods may have saved the Holidays, but... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulating to the markets With economic growth slowing rather than collapsing and both wage and price inflation rebounding in recent months, further interest rate cuts are hard to justify on purely economic terms. Admittedly... 9th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump ramps up pressure on the Fed Despite cutting rates by 25bp this week, the Fed gave no indication that it is lining up another cut soon or that this will mark the start of the extended easing cycle investors are hoping for. But... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly 25bp rate cut may not go down well in the markets The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting. Despite the stronger-than-expected GDP data released on Friday, however, fed funds futures still put the odds of a larger... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumers to the rescue? We expect to learn next week that second-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.6% annualised, from 3.1% in the first, which should reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the FOMC... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell confirms cut; debt ceiling crisis looms Chair Jerome Powell signalled earlier this week that the Fed still intended to push ahead with a July rate cut, despite the post-G20 trade truce, the resilience of the labour market and signs of a... 12th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Any G-20 trade truce unlikely to last If the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 tomorrow is successful, we would expect both sides to agree to resume negotiations and hold off on imposing new tariffs. But, given the... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed acknowledges rising fears about outlook As far as the markets are concerned, this week the Fed all-but guaranteed a July rate cut. On balance, we still suspect that a delay until September is a little more likely, but much will depend on... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to unveil panic rate cut next week The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
