US Economics Weekly Market moves jar with near-term economic prospects The big market moves over the past week – with stock markets and bond yields both falling sharply – present something of a dilemma for our own views. We have long expected an economic slowdown in 2019... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dec rate hike still on; Focus turns to Trump-Xi summit Growing concerns about the health of the global economy have prompted speculation that the Fed won’t hike interest rates as aggressively as previously believed. We suspect that the strength of the... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slumping oil prices radically alter inflation outlook The collapse in crude oil prices over the past month has radically altered the outlook for headline consumer price inflation over the next 12 months. The stronger dollar will only add to the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Gridlock increasingly likely after Sessions firing The results of this week’s midterm elections were in line with expectations, but President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire his Attorney General Jeff Sessions would seem to reduce the odds... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Midterms will split Congress; Fed on hold until Dec. The betting odds suggest that there are few uncertainties surrounding the broad outcomes of Tuesday’s midterm elections, with the Democrats likely to win control of the House while the Republicans... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shifting policy mix means it’s all downhill from here The recent slump in stock markets is hard to square with the 3.5% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP that follows an even more impressive 4.2% rise in the second. Looking at the details of that... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Growth still well above trend in third quarter Data next week are likely to show GDP growth slowing to 3.3% annualised in the third quarter. That would still be well above the economy’s potential growth rate but, looking under the hood, there are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stock market carnage can’t be blamed on “crazy” Fed It is hard to explain this week’s sharp drop in equity prices in terms of the incoming economic data. True, following the surge in the 10-year Treasury yield that began last week, the sell-off in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surging interest rates will worsen eventual slowdown The recent strength of the economy appears to be pushing Fed officials in an increasingly hawkish direction. But the corresponding surge in market interest rates this week only reinforces our own view... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic impact of trade war still modest President Donald Trump’s renewed criticism of Canada this week means that the end-September deadline for a new trilateral NAFTA agreement is set to pass without a deal, increasing the threat that... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising interest rates will take their toll in 2019 The surge in market interest rates, which continued this week, is already feeding through to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses and leaves us increasingly confident in our view that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed raising risks of slowdown further ahead The further rise this week in market interest rate expectations for the next 12 months brought them almost in line with our own long-held and once-hawkish projections. But investors are increasingly... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the ISM surveys too good to be true? The ISM surveys released this week suggest that the economy is set for another quarter of growth above 4% annualised. We suspect that will prove a little too optimistic, but the bottom line is that... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade policy still a clear downside risk President Donald Trump may have reached an agreement to overhaul NAFTA this week but, as his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday highlighted, his protectionist instincts haven’t gone anywhere. They... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ignoring the noise Amid all the political drama of the past week, the clear message from Fed officials is that they remain committed to their plans to continue raising interest rates. That’s unlikely to change until... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
