US-Iran tensions surge as other downside risks fade

The renewed surge in US-Iran tensions has pushed geopolitical risk back up the list of things to worry about in 2020. But with the US no longer a net importer of oil products, the economy is likely to be resilient even if oil prices spike. With other downside risks to the outlook fading, we doubt that would prevent the fall in interest rates last year feeding through to a rebound in economic growth later in 2020.