US Economics Weekly Deteriorating outlook prompts bigger policy response The shift to more aggressive containment measures this week has prompted us to lower our forecast for GDP growth this year to just 0.6%. In response, we expect at least a 50bp rate cut by the Fed next... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy to take a hit despite Fed’s intervention The Fed’s emergency rate cut this week made it clear that officials are taking the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak seriously. But with the number of new cases rising sharply, we don’t... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Grim week raises pressure on the Fed The threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the US is a significant downside risk to the economic outlook. The Fed can do nothing to halt the spread of the virus, but a further tightening of financial... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weak PMIs highlight risk of Q1 wobble While the incoming data have remained mostly positive, the plunge in the Markit composite PMI in February suggests that economic growth could be set for a further slowdown in the first quarter, as the... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic nomination race still wide open When the results of the Iowa caucuses were eventually released they only increased the uncertainty over who will become the Democratic nominee. With his approval rating hitting its highest level in... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation remains stubbornly below target The 2.1% annualised increase in fourth-quarter GDP wasn’t quite as strong as the headline figures suggested but, stepping back, the economy still expanded by a respectable 2.3% last year. The... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remains on side lines Next week’s FOMC meeting is likely to be a low-key affair, with the resilience of the recent economic data and the Phase One trade deal justifying the Fed’s decision to bring its recent rate cutting... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade deal adds to hopes of a more upbeat 2020 The main economic impact of the signing of the Phase One trade deal this week was to further reduce the downside risks to the outlook. But the details of the deal also suggest some upside risk to... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Phase one trade deal still light on details This week brought another round of, on the whole, positive economic data, while the signing of the phase one US-China trade deal next week should further bolster confidence. With tensions in the... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly US-Iran tensions surge as other downside risks fade The renewed surge in US-Iran tensions has pushed geopolitical risk back up the list of things to worry about in 2020. But with the US no longer a net importer of oil products, the economy is likely to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly 2020: how could it all go wrong? As the boost from this year’s loosening in financial conditions feeds through, we expect GDP growth to rebound more sharply than most others anticipate in the second half of 2020. But events this week... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade “deal” leaves plenty of unknowns The apparent agreement between the US and China to avoid the December increase in tariffs and begin a phased rollback of existing tariffs, together with the more upbeat tone from the Fed, all but... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold for a lot longer than just next week The incoming data this week were, on balance, positive and certainly wouldn’t prompt the sort of “material reassessment” of the outlook that Fed officials have said would be necessary to cut interest... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly External drag starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further over the coming months, but the latest data suggest that the slowdown in the fourth quarter won’t be quite as bad as we had previously feared. 27th November 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Housing rebound a sign of things to come The key housing releases this week provided further evidence that the big decline in mortgage rates is feeding through to a rebound in residential investment. That won’t be enough to prevent the... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
