US Economics Weekly Not the quiet first week back we were all hoping for Although we think that markets are still over-estimating the potential for additional large-scale fiscal stimulus this year, the Democrats’ unexpected victories in both Georgia Senate run-off... 8th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery falters; Congress stalls; Fed tweaks The decline in retail sales in November confirmed the message from the slumping high-frequency activity data and the rising trend in jobless claims – namely that the restrictions imposed by many... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy stalling on eve of vaccine rollout This week brought more evidence that the economic rebound has faded in the closing weeks of the year. The near-term risks are still skewed firmly to the downside, even as the vaccine rollout gets... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Light at the end of an increasingly dark tunnel The good news on vaccines kept coming this week, but beyond those encouraging headlines, the inexorable rise in coronavirus infections is beginning to trouble us about the near-term economic outlook. 20th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Concession stand President Donald Trump’s failure to concede defeat more than a week after the election is unprecedented, but unlikely to trigger a constitutional crisis. What matters more over the final months of his... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election delivers gridlock, but more stimulus possible With Joe Biden taking the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, it seems all but certain he will be the next President, while the Senate is likely to remain under Republican control. That means we... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty running high ahead of polling day Joe Biden and the Democrats still look on course to come out on top in Tuesday’s elections. But the surge in early voting means that election night could prove even more of a nail-biter than usual and... 30th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election race enters final stages With the final debate now done and dusted, America enters the final two weeks of the presidential election campaign with Joe Biden still leading in the polls and betting markets suggesting the... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Virus on the rise again as election approaches The renewed upturn in coronavirus infections poses a downside risk to the economy and could also have a late bearing on the Presidential election in a little over two weeks’ time. 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Post-election stimulus a key upside risk The rise in longer-term Treasury yields this week appears to reflect growing expectations of a Democrat clean sweep in November that could result in a larger fiscal stimulus down the road. Stock... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic clean sweep becoming more likely The news that President Donald Trump has tested positive for coronavirus has raised the odds of not only Joe Biden winning in November, but of the Democrats sweeping Congress too. 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly SCOTUS battle hits stimulus hopes as virus fears rise Concerns about the spread of the pandemic in Europe have continued to weigh on the stock market, but the battle over the Supreme Court could end up having a bigger bearing on the near-term outlook by... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to convince markets that it has changed After seeming to take a bold new step when it recently announced it would be adopting a flexible average inflation target, the Fed risked disappointing markets this week when it failed to back that up... 18th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Layoffs back at pre-pandemic levels; fiscal talks stalled The July Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released this week suggests the labour market is in much better health than the downbeat jobless claims figures imply. 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
