US Economics Weekly Post-election stimulus a key upside risk The rise in longer-term Treasury yields this week appears to reflect growing expectations of a Democrat clean sweep in November that could result in a larger fiscal stimulus down the road. Stock... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic clean sweep becoming more likely The news that President Donald Trump has tested positive for coronavirus has raised the odds of not only Joe Biden winning in November, but of the Democrats sweeping Congress too. 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly SCOTUS battle hits stimulus hopes as virus fears rise Concerns about the spread of the pandemic in Europe have continued to weigh on the stock market, but the battle over the Supreme Court could end up having a bigger bearing on the near-term outlook by... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to convince markets that it has changed After seeming to take a bold new step when it recently announced it would be adopting a flexible average inflation target, the Fed risked disappointing markets this week when it failed to back that up... 18th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Layoffs back at pre-pandemic levels; fiscal talks stalled The July Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released this week suggests the labour market is in much better health than the downbeat jobless claims figures imply. 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed playing down expectations of further stimulus In the wake of the Fed’s new policy strategy, a range of officials have used speeches in recent days to play down expectations that a major loosening in policy is imminent. While we still expect the... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed shift unlikely to transform the near-term outlook The confirmation this week that the Fed is adopting “a flexible form of average inflation targeting” indicates that further monetary stimulus is coming soon. But with long-term interest rates already... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Housing rebounds; conventions in full swing This week brought more evidence that the housing market has caught fire – with record low mortgage rates driving a V-shaped recovery despite high unemployment and an elevated mortgage delinquency rate... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus hangs in the balance A week later, it is still unclear whether President Donald Trump’s executive orders on unemployment benefits and payroll taxes will provide any meaningful fiscal stimulus during the second half of... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery continues as pace of infections slows The incoming data this week were almost universally stronger than expected, with even July’s non-farm payroll figures coming in above consensus. With the number of new daily coronavirus infections... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lining up more support as fiscal talks drag on The second-quarter GDP data released this week, which showed output plunging by a record 32.9% annualised, highlighted the unprecedented hit to the economy from the pandemic. We know that activity... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Focus on near-term and medium-term fiscal plans With the pace of infections rising across most of the country, and the economic recovery in danger of going into reverse, we suspect that Congress will, at least partially, extend the enhanced $600... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery is losing momentum A growing range of indicators suggest the economic recovery stalled in late-June and early July, in part because of a resurgence in virus infections. There’s clearly a risk that the virus continues... 10th July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly New wave of infections prompts renewed closures In a quiet week for data, the ISM non-manufacturing index is the only release of note. Echoing the already reported rebound in the manufacturing index, we expect the non-manufacturing index to recover... 2nd July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden now the front runner The latest polling and betting odds data suggest that Joe Biden is pulling ahead of Donald Trump in the race to win November’s Presidential election. Trump’s approval ratings have taken a hit from his... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
