US Economics Weekly Economy buoyed by stimulus and drop in virus cases Economic activity seems to have responded strongly to the latest round of fiscal stimulus passed in mid-December and the drop in coronavirus case numbers, which has allowed for the easing of... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Dovish Powell; economy emerging from hibernation With fiscal negotiations taking a backseat to the impeachment trial in the Senate, a dovish Powell speech took the limelight this week, together with signs that virus restrictions will continue to be... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pushing forward with stimulus plans This week the Democrats took the first step toward forcing a large-scale stimulus through the Senate using reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority. But even though it required an all... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing firm despite more positive outlook The rapidly accelerating vaccine rollout means that the economic outlook continues to brighten. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone in his post-FOMC press conference this week reinforces our... 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal willingness to accommodate fiscal boost Incoming President Job Biden signed a flurry of executive orders during his first couple of days in office, but it remains to be seen whether the divided Senate will support his broader agenda... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden era begins with high hopes The inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden and new impeachment of President Donald Trump may signal a dramatic shift in the political landscape, but it remains to be seen whether hopes of a... 15th January 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Not the quiet first week back we were all hoping for Although we think that markets are still over-estimating the potential for additional large-scale fiscal stimulus this year, the Democrats’ unexpected victories in both Georgia Senate run-off... 8th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery falters; Congress stalls; Fed tweaks The decline in retail sales in November confirmed the message from the slumping high-frequency activity data and the rising trend in jobless claims – namely that the restrictions imposed by many... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy stalling on eve of vaccine rollout This week brought more evidence that the economic rebound has faded in the closing weeks of the year. The near-term risks are still skewed firmly to the downside, even as the vaccine rollout gets... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Light at the end of an increasingly dark tunnel The good news on vaccines kept coming this week, but beyond those encouraging headlines, the inexorable rise in coronavirus infections is beginning to trouble us about the near-term economic outlook. 20th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Concession stand President Donald Trump’s failure to concede defeat more than a week after the election is unprecedented, but unlikely to trigger a constitutional crisis. What matters more over the final months of his... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election delivers gridlock, but more stimulus possible With Joe Biden taking the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, it seems all but certain he will be the next President, while the Senate is likely to remain under Republican control. That means we... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty running high ahead of polling day Joe Biden and the Democrats still look on course to come out on top in Tuesday’s elections. But the surge in early voting means that election night could prove even more of a nail-biter than usual and... 30th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election race enters final stages With the final debate now done and dusted, America enters the final two weeks of the presidential election campaign with Joe Biden still leading in the polls and betting markets suggesting the... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
