US Economics Weekly Global downturn taking its toll on exports With weaker growth overseas and the drag from the stronger dollar now pushing exports lower, the resilience of consumption is the only thing keeping the economy from falling into recession. 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed strikes back This week Fed officials pushed back against the market rally in the wake of October’s unexpectedly weak CPI report, but with only limited success. Despite officials reaffirming that they still had “a... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Midterms a mixed bag; disinflation begins in earnest While the outcome of the midterms remains unclear, far more important for the economy was October’s softer-than-expected core CPI data, which support our view that the Fed won’t need to raise interest... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dovish turn is still coming, eventually This week’s FOMC meeting may have dashed hopes that the Fed will follow the recent dovish tilts of some other central banks. But we still think Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Faltering economy will contribute to Fed pivot The 2.6% annualised rise in third quarter GDP was a lot worse than it looked, with growth in underlying demand grinding to a near-halt. At the same time, there are mounting signs that economic... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slump in housing and imports This week’s data releases painted a mixed picture of activity: from the good, to the bad, and the just plain ugly. Canada Drop-In (26th October): We’re holding a briefing on the Bank of Canada... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to keep hiking until inflation subsides We still think it’s only a matter of time before the easing of inflationary pressure evident in the surveys and other private-sector data shows up in the official figures. But the September CPI report... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed’s tightening trigger financial instability? The recent liquidity issues faced by UK pensions funds and problems at a few European banks have led to speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes will trigger some form of financial instability... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy weak despite export strength The revised GDP data released this week confirm the economy was already struggling ahead of the more recent tightening in financial conditions. Although surging exports appear to have driven a strong... 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed resolute in battle to slay the inflationary dragon The Fed’s transformation from inflation-denier back to Volcker-style inflation-slayer is all but complete. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his press conference this week, “we have got to get... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker growth will bear down on inflation soon The economic data this week suggest that slowing activity growth isn’t yet putting downward pressure on core inflation, which is likely to see the Fed remain in hawkish mode at its meeting next week... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising despite labour market resilience Our tracker models suggest the odds of a recession are rising although, on balance, we still expect a period of weak growth rather than an outright contraction. If we are wrong and a recession drives... 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly With inflation outlook improving, pivot is still on In a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Better news for the Fed going into Jackson Hole With the rebound in activity growth in July coming against a backdrop of easing inflation, we still think the Fed will hike rates by a smaller 50bp next month. 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
