US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging prices begin to weigh on confidence Negotiations over a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure spending continued this week, but the Republicans and Democrats are still so far apart in their offers that it is only a matter of time... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remaining dovish as supply-side constraints mount In a relatively quiet week, the few data releases we did get added to signs that shortages are pushing up prices further and restraining the pace of economic recovery. 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly A whiff of stagflation The extent of the surge in CPI inflation in April specifically caught us a little off guard, although we had been expecting a pick-up in response to the reopening and the shortages of raw materials... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed and the frog Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen set the cat among the pigeons this week when she remarked in an interview “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn... 7th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic take-off already underway President Joe Biden’s Families Plan wouldn’t provide much of an additional boost, but the stimulus already in place should ensure that the economic recovery goes from strength to strength, with the... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus boosting prices as much as output This week brought further signs that the surge in demand is triggering much stronger price pressures. 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing back as economy shifts into higher gear The economic data released this week reinforce our view that the recent fiscal stimulus and continued lifting of virus restrictions will drive a marked acceleration in GDP growth this year, while also... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long, winding road to an infrastructure deal The news that a new interpretation of Senate rules would allow Democrats to pass a second reconciliation bill this fiscal year has the potential to be a gamechanger, but we expect moderate Senate... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly New spending plan to face rockier path With the next phase of President Joe Biden’s Recovery plan spending likely to take a considerable time to pass Congress and be largely financed by higher taxes, it looks set to have a far smaller... 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is it finally infrastructure week? News reports suggest President Joe Biden will unveil plans for a large infrastructure package on Wednesday. We expect the package will take much longer and be harder to pass than the $1.9trn American... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed banking on inflation staying muted The Fed made clear this week that it still has no plans to raise interest rates within the next three years. But that apparently rests on the belief that the strongest economic growth in nearly 40... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats far from done with stimulus With President Joe Biden having signed the $1.9trn American Rescue Plan into law, the discussion will now move on to the American Recovery Plan, the complementary package that will focus on longer... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus set to drive growth and inflation higher The sell-off in Treasuries continued this week, as Fed officials signalled that they are not overly concerned by rising yields and the Senate closed in on passing President Joe Biden’s $1.9trn fiscal... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed doubles down on its new policy framework Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress – together with similarly-dovish speeches from key Board members this week – underlined the Fed’s new commitment to the full employment side of its... 26th February 2021 · 7 mins read
