US Economics Weekly 25bp rate cut may not go down well in the markets The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting. Despite the stronger-than-expected GDP data released on Friday, however, fed funds futures still put the odds of a larger... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumers to the rescue? We expect to learn next week that second-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.6% annualised, from 3.1% in the first, which should reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the FOMC... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell confirms cut; debt ceiling crisis looms Chair Jerome Powell signalled earlier this week that the Fed still intended to push ahead with a July rate cut, despite the post-G20 trade truce, the resilience of the labour market and signs of a... 12th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Any G-20 trade truce unlikely to last If the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 tomorrow is successful, we would expect both sides to agree to resume negotiations and hold off on imposing new tariffs. But, given the... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed acknowledges rising fears about outlook As far as the markets are concerned, this week the Fed all-but guaranteed a July rate cut. On balance, we still suspect that a delay until September is a little more likely, but much will depend on... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to unveil panic rate cut next week The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade war escalates with economy already weakening This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff threats rock weakening economy The shock news that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico comes amid mounting evidence that the economy has already lost considerable momentum. The May employment... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade dispute with China not a major threat to outlook President Donald Trump’s surprise move this week to impose higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports could mark the start of a significant escalation in the trade dispute. Nevertheless, it might... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Trump right and the Fed wrong? President Donald Trump was at his trolling best earlier in the week when he tweeted shortly before the FOMC meeting that the Fed should cut interest rates by 1% point and restart quantitative easing... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headline GDP masks underlying weakness This week’s data releases helped to confirm that first-quarter GDP growth was much better than we originally feared, but the underlying strength of the domestic economy is a concern. As it stands now... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
