US Economics Weekly Economic slowdown set to continue The data releases this week strengthen our belief that the apparent weakness of GDP growth in the first quarter won’t just be a temporary blip. We expect a continued economic slowdown to convince the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to our view on rate cuts The partial inversion of the Treasury yield curve has attracted a lot of attention over the past week, but we have been more surprised by the speed at which markets have started to price in rate cuts... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too late to prevent slowdown By making it clear that interest rates will not be raised this year and that quantitative tightening will start to wind down earlier than previously suggested, the Fed was even more dovish this week... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Some positives beneath the gloomy headlines Attention on Friday was inevitably captured by the terrible February payrolls number but, looking back at developments this week, there was also a surprising number of positives. 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slows; US-China edge closer to deal The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little better than the markets were braced for, but the bottom line is that growth has now been slowing for the past few quarters. We expect that... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mueller may overshadow Trump, Kim and Powell Next week is shaping up to be a busy one, when congressional testimony by the Fed’s Chair, the delayed publication of fourth-quarter GDP and the second Trump-Kim summit could all be eclipsed by the... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data reinforce Fed’s “patient” stance The Fed’s “patient” stance was originally a response to the deteriorating global economic and financial market backdrop, but the dreadful activity data and subdued inflation figures out this week... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US sails on as global economy sinks The US economy still appears to be sailing on serenely while the rest of the world economy sinks like a stone. The latest survey data for January show an apparent capitulation in both China and the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulation won't prevent economic slowdown In a remarkable U-turn, the Fed appears to have abandoned plans to continue gradually raising interest rates it set out only six weeks ago. The markets unsurprisingly welcomed this dovish shift, but... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stick with “patient” mantra At next week’s policy meeting, the Fed is likely to reiterate its current mantra that it can be “patient” in waiting to hike interest rates. Admittedly, stock markets have recovered most of the losses... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown costs continue to mount We have long argued that, rather than trade policy, an extended Federal government shutdown would be the key downside risk to the economy this year. Sure enough, the current stand-off is already the... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How patient will the Fed be? With financial markets rebounding this week and the incoming domestic activity data relatively strong, we still expect the “patient” Fed to raise interest rates this year. But core PCE inflation looks... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown likely to continue into third week The Federal government has now been partially shuttered for the past two weeks, which already makes it one of the longest closures on record. Given the intransigence on both sides, there is a very... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets increasingly pricing in a Fed mistake The clear view in financial markets in the wake of the December FOMC meeting is that any further rate hikes over the coming months are likely to be reversed in 2020. Our long-held forecast is that a... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown will be biggest downside risk in 2019 As the fiscal stimulus fades and the lagged impact of monetary tightening intensifies, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and only 1.2% in 2020. Markets apparently believe... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
