US Economics Weekly Outlook improving for both retailers and industry The second half of the year is likely to be much better than the first for both retailers and manufacturers. Faster income growth should help households shrug off the lingering effects of January’s... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 tapering in September still a good bet We don’t think the balanced discussion that took place at the FOMC meeting in mid-June means that the Fed is less likely to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases sooner rather than later. In... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slower Q2 GDP growth won't change the Fed's plans Last week brought a plethora of economic data which, on balance, indicated that second-quarter growth could be a little weaker than previously expected. We now estimate a modest 1.5% gain in real GDP... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Fed’s tapering and rate hike timetable The markets may have overreacted a bit to the details of the Fed’s QE3 tapering timetable and the prospect of the first interest rate hike taking place in two years’ time. Nonetheless, the growing... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed responding to improving economic outlook It now appears that GDP growth will slow to around 1.8% in the second quarter, but we should see a pick-up in the second half of this year. The slowdown is probably a delayed reaction to the tax hikes... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Significant surge in Treasury yields is still unlikely We do not place much weight on concerns that the recent rise in Treasury yields will snuff out the economic recovery or that it is the start of a sharp and sustained rise in yields similar to that... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fears about student loans still look overdone The latest data from the New York Fed have reignited concerns about a possible bubble in student loans. But the growth of student loans has always been faster than the growth in other types of... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed struggling to explain likely evolution of asset purchases For a central bank that supposedly puts so much weight on clear communications, last week’s various attempts by Federal Reserve officials to explain when it might begin curbing its open ended monthly... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US making progress on deficit reduction Over the next two years, America is expected to reduce its government budget deficit by more than the largest European economies. This won’t come without a cost. But the big difference is that America... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook for bank lending remains favourable The fall in the stock of credit card debt in March tells us almost nothing about the outlook for consumption. More useful are other signs that credit card lending will rise over the next year. At the... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won’t provide numerical thresholds for QE3 The Fed won’t follow its recent hint that it could increase as well as reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases by stating what combination of the unemployment and inflation rates would trigger... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Low inflation may concern the Fed The Fed’s preferred PCE measure of core inflation could soon fall to around 1%. Together with the recent weakening in the tone of the incoming activity data, this may mean the Fed is less inclined to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in energy prices could provide much-needed boost The slump in energy prices suggests that second-quarter GDP growth might not be as bad as we had initially feared when the incoming data for March proved to be unexpectedly weak. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the annual spring swoon? The run of weak economic data reports, which continued last week with the news of an unexpected decline in March retail sales, has led to speculation that the US economy is enduring yet another spring... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter unlikely to be as good as the first It is impressive that in the first quarter, when households were hit by higher taxes and everyone had to contend with a spike in gasoline prices, GDP probably grew at an annualised rate of at least 3... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
