Last week's upward revision to third-quarter GDP growth to 3.6% annualised, from the initial 2.8% estimate, prompted a number of forecasters to lower their forecasts for fourth-quarter GDP growth, in some cases to below 1.0%. To some extent that is understandable since roughly half of the third-quarter gain was due to faster inventory accumulation. We agree that inventories will be a drag on growth in the fourth-quarter, but we expect it to be relatively modest.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.