Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish and Italian “separatists” not yet an economic worry Madrid’s plan to impose direct rule in Catalonia is likely to be met by protests, which would cause shortterm disruption. The risk of a more serious economic deterioration is growing, but as things... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austrian populists to frustrate EU integration plans The Austrian general election taking place this Sunday is likely to result in a far-right, populist party entering government. While this probably won’t have significant domestic economic... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Catalan political crisis still far from an economic one The Catalan Government could achieve independence without Spain’s consent if a critical mass of people and firms were on board. This would be negative for the rest of Spain. Spain’s government’s debt... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Would Macron’s plan for fiscal union work? Among the wide range of proposals for the EU put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron this week was the introduction of a euro-zone finance minister and a euro-zone budget. In principle, we... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will Germany’s election mean for the economy? The German election taking place on Sunday is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. But the composition of the next coalition – which is likely to be either another grand coalition... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone moving closer to fiscal union? European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker this week gave his support to the creation of a European Monetary Fund and a euro-zone “budget line”. Eventually, these would result in slightly... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French outlook bright despite reform worries French consumers are, rather unusually, very upbeat at the moment, with measures of consumer confidence at or close to multi-year highs. In particular, they are much less worried about being made... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy shrugs off stronger euro for now Although the euro’s strength does not appear to have had an adverse impact on the euro-zone economy so far, this may not last. After all, unless the currency’s recent appreciation is reversed, it... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Synchronised recovery makes the ECB’s job easier The euro-zone’s economic growth is unusually synchronised across the region. Economies in the core continue to do well, while previously-struggling countries like Italy and Portugal are growing again... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ten years on, is the euro-zone out of the woods? Ten years ago this week marked the start of the global financial crisis and a challenging time for the euro-zone economy. In many respects, the euro-zone finally appears to be out of the woods. Growth... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the euro-zone continue to outperform? In the first half of this year, GDP in the euro-zone expanded at a faster pace than that in either the US or the UK. But while we remain very positive on the outlook for the euro-zone economy, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What if the euro keeps on rising? This week, the euro reached its highest level against the US dollar since before QE began. It would probably take a much larger appreciation to knock the economic recovery completely off course. But a... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong investment to bolster economic growth At this week’s ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi highlighted the continued improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. He reiterated that the region looks set for a period of solid... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal shackles loosen but little stimulus in sight Euro-zone member states appear to have put their public finances largely in order now, with the European Commission deeming this week that even Greece has made sufficient progress to become compliant... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
