Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German slowdown will force the ECB’s hand Last week’s news on the euro-zone brought the strongest signs yet that some parts of the currency union are starting to feel the effects of the deterioration in the international environment. In... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How did the euro-zone economy perform in Q3? The hard data available so far for Q3, as well as the more timely activity surveys, suggest that the economy performed fairly well last quarter. GDP growth probably maintained its pace from Q2 and may... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the VW scandal put the brakes on German growth? The news last week that Volkswagen had cheated emissions tests prompted speculation that “Made in Germany” branding had been dealt a blow that could seriously jeopardize the economy’s prospects. Given... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s problems lie closer to home than China We are fairly relaxed about the impact of a slowdown in China on the euro-zone. Most importantly, this is because the concerns about the Chinese economy look overblown. And in any case, the direct... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bailout almost there, but it may not last long The remaining hurdles to the implementation of the third Greek bailout look likely to be cleared in the next few days. But the deal could unravel quite quickly if Greece fails to meet the extremely... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the Spanish economy keep its place in the sun? Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bailout on the rocks before it’s begun? Looking ahead to this week, we think that euro-zone retail sales data for June will reveal a slight slowdown in annual sales growth. On a country level, indicative of their wider economic performances... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak growth hindering euro-zone’s fiscal progress Greece last week passed the necessary reforms to start negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout. But with the country back in recession, it will struggle to meet the creditors’ fiscal goals... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal clears some hurdles, plenty left The plan for a third Greek bailout has cleared a number of hurdles over the last week, including provisional approval by the Greek and German parliaments. But there are plenty of obstacles yet to be... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Greek bailout would just delay the inevitable There appears to be a chance that Greece and its creditors will come to a last minute agreement on a new bailout which avoids an imminent Greek departure from the currency union. But there are many... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
