Europe Economics Weekly The periphery catches up – oh dear One notable element of last week’s euro-zone GDP figures for the third quarter was the strength of the peripheral economies, even Greece, in relation to the core. This might be seen as confirmation... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will trigger ECB QE and when? The ECB suggested last week that preparations are finally underway to launch full-blown quantitative easing. It seems that action will be triggered by either of two factors: evidence that existing... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking sector recovery still appears fragile Last week’s bank stress test results, September’s lending data and the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey all suggested that conditions in the euro-zone’s banking sector are, on the whole, improving... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stress tests to put spotlight on Italy and Greece The Comprehensive Assessment of the euro-zone’s banks published on Sunday should go some way towards restoring sentiment in the banking sector. After all, the adverse economic scenarios to which the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slip Last week’s rise in peripheral euro-zone bond yields mainly reflected contagion effects from Greece’s sell-off, rather than general fiscal concerns. Indeed, draft 2015 budgets showed most countries... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany needs more stimulus for its own sake Recent renewed calls for the German Government to take advantage of its fiscal room for manoeuvre in order to stimulate its economy have centred on the potentially beneficial effects on its weaker... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB already doing QE? The ECB confirmed last week that it will start to buy assets outright later this month and that the purchases will not be sterilised. But technically, this probably still amounts to credit easing... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hook The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Low uptake dashes ECB’s hopes for TLTROs The low uptake at the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) last week supported our view that the policy is unlikely to be successful at boosting bank lending. It... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Limited room for growth-friendly fiscal policies While signs of pragmatism have recently emerged in the ongoing fiscal debate in the euro-zone, we think there is currently little room for fiscal policy to play much of a role in tackling low growth... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still tiptoeing around QE While last week’s cuts in interest rates and details of asset purchase programmes were a welcomesurprise, we still believe that the ECB will eventually have to stop tiptoeing around and take theplunge... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak data increase the chance of ECB QE Events last week gave support to our long-held view that the ECB will have to take the plunge and launch a full-blown quantitative easing programme in the coming months. Survey data added to mounting... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is recent euro-zone weakness down to the Ukraine crisis? The latest falls in business confidence and the weakness of euro-zone exports seem to relate partly to the effects of the Ukraine crisis and could therefore be fairly short-lived. But there is a risk... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Draghi talks down the euro, but action needed While last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting offered few signs of imminent further policymeasures, one encouraging development was President Draghi’s willingness to talk down theeuro. But we think... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit conditions easing, but still very tight The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
