Europe Economics Weekly Why is the euro-zone economy slowing? Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi’s criteria for further easing already met Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the debt crisis back? There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil price falls will depress inflation for some time yet Euro-zone consumer price inflation looks likely to pick up later this year, driven by the fading direct effect of lower oil prices and the feed-through of previous falls in the euro to consumer prices... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is France in a state of economic emergency? President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the euro-zone surveys too optimistic? The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are euro-zone consumers running out of steam? Perhaps the most notable positive surprise in the euro-zone last year was the strength of household spending. Spending looks likely to have expanded by 1.5% or more in 2015. This would be the... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth supports to fade in 2016 The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak German exports dent hopes for 2016 Contrary to hopes that a weaker euro and accommodative monetary policy would be particularly beneficial to Germany’s supposedly super-competitive export sector, the latest data have brought signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona shoots wide The ECB’s failure to live up to its own hype at December’s Governing Council meeting looks likely to have at least some negative consequences, both on the economic outlook via the market response and... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger activity surveys won’t deter ECB Euro-zone activity surveys for November, released last week, suggest that the economic recovery regained some pace in Q4. But the rates of growth that they imply would still only reduce the spare... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth slowdown seals case for more ECB action If there were any remaining doubts that the ECB will bow to the growing pressure to provide additional monetary policy stimulus to the euro-zone’s fragile economic recovery, Q3’s disappointing GDP... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB can’t rely on Fed to do its work With the composite euro-zone PMI pointing to steady growth and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen pushing the euro down to a four-month low against the dollar, further policy loosening by... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets pressure ECB to deliver Policymakers at the ECB have seemingly been priming the markets for additional stimulus to be announced in December. With some form of easing now priced into the market, the Bank is under pressure to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
