Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB change course if growth stays strong? ECB President Mario Draghi last week reiterated the plan to buy assets throughout this year and keep interest rates at or below current levels for an extended period. But he also explained that... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in inflation expectations won’t upend ECB’s plans The recent strength of activity surveys, as well as increases in headline inflation and inflation expectations, are all good news for the ECB. But for now, we doubt that this will be enough to sway... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation is approaching a peak After reaching a 47-month high of 1.8% in January, euro-zone consumer price inflation is set to rise further in the coming months. While we expect headline inflation to surpass the ECB’s near-2%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy robust as election contests take shape Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a pretty strong footing. January’s Composite PMI remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of about 0.4%, while the rise... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey adds to case for loose ECB policy With the euro-zone economy performing fairly well and headline inflation on the up, the results of last week’s Bank Lending Survey were a timely reminder to the ECB that its job is far from done... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Le Pen’s ECU plan feasible? Marine Le Pen’s suggestion last week that France could leave the euro-zone, devalue and then peg the new currency to the euro to limit exchange rate volatility has been written off as a hopeless... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry won’t prevent a slowdown in overall growth The short-term outlook for euro-zone industry is positive. Surveys suggest that output growth will rise in the coming months and, if sustained, the recent decline of the euro should provide a boost... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
