Europe Economics Weekly Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data? The message from survey evidence that activity in the euro-zone has picked up substantially since the end of last year has yet to be fully reflected in the official data. Indeed, quarterly growth of 0... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back to business for the ECB? The election of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president has removed a big risk to the euro-zone economic outlook. This could allow the ECB to stop worrying about political risks and to concentrate... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Macron galvanise the French economy? Centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron looks set to comfortably defeat populist eurosceptic Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s final round of France’s presidential election and might even manage to secure a... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey provides more good news for ECB This week’s Bank Lending Survey brought more good news for the ECB. Lending conditions have continued to improve, and growth in the demand for credit points to a continued decent recovery in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Key questions about the French election After a tumultuous and ultimately nail-biting campaign, French voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin the process of electing their President. The opinion polls suggest that this first-round vote... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone set for healthy Q1 despite weak industry The strength of economic survey indicators in Q1 has not yet been reflected in either the retail sales or industrial production data. But construction appears to have boomed and car registrations... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB tightening is still a distant prospect Last week’s communications from the ECB confirmed our judgement that it is in no hurry to begin the process of policy normalisation despite the health of the economy. Indeed, the Bank still intends to... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to beat consensus this year Last week brought more evidence that the euro-zone economy has continued to perform very well and we have decided to upgrade our forecasts for the region significantly. Indeed, inflation has been more... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise not a threat to the recovery The euro’s rise against the US dollar over the past few weeks has probably reflected speculation of ECB tapering, as well as perceptions of diminished political risk in the currency union. We doubt... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB change course if growth stays strong? ECB President Mario Draghi last week reiterated the plan to buy assets throughout this year and keep interest rates at or below current levels for an extended period. But he also explained that... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in inflation expectations won’t upend ECB’s plans The recent strength of activity surveys, as well as increases in headline inflation and inflation expectations, are all good news for the ECB. But for now, we doubt that this will be enough to sway... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
