Europe Economics Weekly A Brexit would force the ECB into action European financial markets have finally woken up to the threat of a Brexit, with stock markets and core country bond yields declining. A UK vote to leave the EU on 23rd June would prompt greater... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro 2016 unlikely to kick off French recovery There are hopes that Euro 2016 will provide a boost to the French economy and perhaps lift national sentiment. But any gains in football-related expenditure will be at least partly offset by falls... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly QE expansion uneven across the euro-zone The expansion of the ECB’s QE programme may have contributed to the recent increase in euro-zone equity prices and economic sentiment. But purchases of government bonds have increased by more in the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed The German economy got off to a strong start to the year. The healthy 0.7% expansion of GDP in Q1 was driven primarily by a pick-up in investment but also increases in public and private consumption... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will slow from here Despite the downward revision to Q1 euro-zone GDP, the 0.5% quarterly gain still got the year off to a solid start. But there are good reasons to expect growth to be slower in Q2 and beyond. And the... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic Last week’s EC Spring forecasts presented a pretty uninspiring picture of the euro-zone economy’s prospects. Despite the unprecedented degree of monetary policy support, growth is expected to slow... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth While we’re still hopeful that the divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy will help to bring the euro lower against the US dollar, the combination of the Fed’s recent dovishnessand hints... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears ECB officials appear to be trying to strike a balance between holding the door open to further policy action and yet stressing the limitations of monetary policy in order to pressure governments into... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing We have argued for some time that the consumer recovery, which was the main driver of growth in 2015, would slow this year. Last week brought further evidence that this process is underway. Declining... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery back on track? Any economic effects of last week’s tragic terrorist attacks in Brussels clearly pale into insignificance compared to the loss of life and social consequences. But the direct economic impact seems... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s trade surplus set to shrink We do not think that the recent strengthening of the euro is the result of a change of tactics from the ECB, away from trying to manage the exchange rate towards attempting to boost domestic demand... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How long will deflation last this time? The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
