Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come?

Data released this week added to the evidence that soft global demand and the previous appreciation of the euro have taken a toll on euro-zone exports. We doubt that exports will regain all of their lost momentum, but growth should pick up in the coming quarters. Prospects for domestic demand are also bright, boding well for the overall outlook. One country that was particularly affected by a slowdown in export growth in Q1 was the Netherlands, where they fell for the first time in 19 quarters. This appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, leaving scope for a strong rebound in Q2. In light of the latest data we have revised down our 2018 GDP growth forecast, but we still expect the Netherlands to be one of the region’s strongest performers.