Key questions about the French election

After a tumultuous and ultimately nail-biting campaign, French voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin the process of electing their President. The opinion polls suggest that this first-round vote will go down to the wire with the second round within reach of all four main candidates. While we would advise not taking the polls at face value, we still think that the result, due not long after 8pm local time, will pit centrist Emmanuel Macron against eurosceptic Marine Le Pen in the second round on 7th May. This would probably provoke little market reaction, though there is a good chance of a stronger-than-predicted result for Mme. Le Pen, which would rattle investors’ nerves.