Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers still not ready to spend freely Despite a slight fall in July, euro-zone consumer confidence remains at a high level. But this hasyet to be reflected in a significant rise in spending growth. This might be because consumers’optimism... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB edging slowly towards quantitative easing ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement last week that “QE falls squarely in our mandate” was perhaps the strongest signal yet that the ECB is considering bolder policy support. But Bundesbank... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Don't bank on a German industrial resurgence Data published last week revealed that production fell in all four of the euro-zone’s largest economies in May. But the downturn in Germany has been most disappointing given hopes that this industrial... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro finally about to drop? Recent policy developments support our expectation that the euro will fall against the US dollar. We forecast a rate of $1.30 at end-2014 and $1.25 at end-2015. But that fall could be too little too... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery over already? Last week's euro-zone economic data added to the growing weight of evidence that the fledgling recovery in the currency union - which only really got going a year ago - is already running out of steam... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak wage growth adds to deflation risks Data last week revealed that euro-zone labour costs growth fell to just 0.9% in Q1, adding to evidence of deflationary pressure in the region. The fall in wage growth has not been confined to the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral industry on its feet but not ready to run Industrial production is now expanding faster in the euro-zone’s periphery than in the core. While this reflects progress made towards restructuring in the peripheral economies, industry still faces... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack While the ECB made a number of announcements last week, the policies involved are not as bold as they might seem. The interest rate cuts were clearly tiny and the decision not to sterilise bond... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the ECB weaken the euro? While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly France's recovery to be snail-paced France’s economy hasn’t picked up much steam since it stagnated in Q1. Although the outlook for the second half of the year is a little brighter, the recovery will remain pretty weak. The resulting... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will be the ECB's next move? While President Draghi made clear last week that the ECB will loosen policy in June, he gave very few hints about just what action the Bank will take. Small cuts in the main refinancing and deposit... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Beefed-up stress tests will be no quick fix The euro-zone’s upcoming bank stress tests are likely to be more effective than the region’s earlier attempts. But the euro-zone financial system will heal only slowly, remaining a drag on the... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The unhelpful divergence between France and Germany Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone recovery gained more traction at the start of Q2. But there remains a worrying divergence between France and Germany which risks holding back the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt issue doesn't end the broader crisis Greece’s return to the bond markets last week might appear to mark the end of the euro-zone crisis which began when the true extent of the same country’s fiscal problems came to light in 2010. But... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
