FX Markets
A service for investors who are either managing risk, or who are looking to enhance their returns by actively taking on foreign exchange risk, FX Markets offers in-depth coverage of more than 30 advanced and emerging market currencies, focusing on the underlying macroeconomic drivers of foreign exchange markets.
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Key Forecasts
|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
||
|
DXY |
105.7 |
101.0 |
96.9 |
USD/CNY |
7.30 |
6.90 |
6.70 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.05 |
1.10 |
1.15 |
USD/INR |
83.0 |
80.0 |
78.0 |
|
USD/JPY |
145 |
130 |
125 |
USD/BRL |
5.10 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.20 |
1.20 |
1.25 |
USD/MXN |
19.00 |
20.50 |
21.00 |
|
USD/CAD |
1.38 |
1.34 |
1.32 |
USD/ZAR |
19.50 |
18.50 |
18.00 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.64 |
0.68 |
0.74 |
Key Calls
- We continue to think that the yen will rebound sharply against the dollar and other major currencies as bond yields in the US and elsewhere fall back over the coming year.
- The Norwegian krone’s latest sell-off has left it substantially undervalued by our estimates. While it may continue to struggle in the near term, we expect the krone to strengthen against most other G10 currencies over the medium term.
- We expect sterling to underperform the other European G10 currencies as interest rate expectations continue to fall back more in the UK than elsewhere, and sterling’s relatively rich valuation proves a headwind.
- The rallies in the Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and Hungarian forint amid persistent and relatively high inflation has left the real effective exchange rates of these currencies near all-time highs. We think they are vulnerable to sharp falls over the coming quarters as external demand weakens.
- We think the Indian rupee is poised to rebound against the dollar given our view that the economic growth in India will hold up relatively well, the current account deficit will narrow further, and monetary policy will be eased only gradually.
- We expect the Mexican peso to fall sharply given the currency’s overvaluation, stretched positioning, and falling carry. We suspect slowing economic growth in the US may be the catalyst for depreciation.
All FX Markets Coverage
Featured Economists
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Jonas Goltermann
Deputy Chief Markets Economist
Jonas Goltermann is the Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics and heads up the FX Markets service. Jonas joined Capital Economics in 2019 from ING Wholesale Banking, where he worked in the Global Macro Research team. Before that, he worked as an economist at the Bank of England and the UK government’s Department for International Development. He holds degrees from Northwestern University, the University of Edinburgh, and the College of Europe.
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Jonathan Petersen
Senior Markets Economist
Jonathan Petersen joined Capital Economics in October 2020 and is a Markets Economist in the Global Markets team. He joined from Vanguard’s economic research team, where he specialized in currencies and global trade. Before that, he was a strategy consultant in Deloitte Consulting’s mergers and acquisitions practice. He holds an undergraduate degree in Economics and Corporate Strategy from Boston College and a masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh.