Global Markets Outlook We think the recovery in risky assets has further to go We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the... 30th April 2020 · 30 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor MSCI USA’s valuation most stretched since dot-com era The price/estimated earnings (P/E) ratio of the MSCI USA Index – a benchmark index of mid- and large-cap US equities – recently rose to its highest level since the dot-com era. Nonetheless, we still... 22nd April 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Comparatively well placed to weather the carnage Low levels of government debt mean that Switzerland and the Nordic economies are comparatively well placed to withstand the acute stresses being placed on the public finances – particularly compared... 21st April 2020 · 16 mins read
DM Markets Chart Book Core markets improving, but pockets of risk remain Strains in financial markets are continuing to ease slowly as central banks’ efforts contain the fallout from the pandemic take effect and equity markets rebound on hopes that the spread of the virus... 17th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Book Scale of the economic carnage is becoming apparent The scale of the economic damage in Switzerland and the Nordics following the imposition of draconian virus-related containment measures is becoming all too apparent. Business surveys have plunged... 8th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM ex-Asia equity valuations starting to look attractive Although the valuation of the overall MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is not unusually low, EM equities outside Asia and in some “cyclical” sectors now appear quite attractively valued by past... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US equities likely to rebound before recession ends While the coronavirus epidemic will probably weigh on the US economy much beyond the end of this year, we suspect that the S&P 500 will start recovering in the second half of 2020. 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower equity valuations not a source of comfort In our view, global equities are not as “cheap” as the recent falls in price/earnings ratios seem to suggest. That is because earnings expectations are likely to be revised down much further as the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Emerging Asian equities likely to lag in any rebound If, as we expect, worst fears about the coronavirus outbreak don’t materialise, global stock markets will probably generally recover. However, we doubt that this will be the case for equities in... 6th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Global bond rally might be running out of fuel In our view, the coronavirus epidemic would have to get much worse for central banks to deliver more rate cuts that investors now anticipate. As such, we think that government bond yields in most... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Book Twin rally in equities and bonds unlikely to last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the twin rally in US equity and bond markets will end before long. 18th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Book Coronavirus driving financial market moves The initial financial market reaction in Switzerland and the Nordics to the coronavirus followed the familiar pattern during times of uncertainty: the Swiss franc rose and Swiss bond yields tumbled on... 13th February 2020 · 10 mins read
EM Markets Chart Book Outlook for EM assets remains poor regardless of virus Even if the coronavirus outbreak in China is brought under control and the recent moves in equity and bond markets unwind, we think that most EM assets will not make significant gains this year. This... 11th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Epidemic not the only cloud over Chinese markets While Chinese equities and bond yields might return to their levels of early-January if the coronavirus epidemic is contained, our bearish view of China’s economy suggests to us that they and the... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
