Hubert de Barochez

Hubert de Barochez is a Senior Economist in the Global Markets team. Prior to joining Capital Economics, he worked as economic policy analyst at MEDEF, the main business organisation in France, and as macroeconomist at BNP Paribas. Hubert holds master's degrees in economics, finance, and engineering.

Capital Daily

How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low

We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year.

19th February 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally

Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury...

15th February 2024 4 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: Election Preview – Would a new government move the dial on the economy?

13th March 2024, 3:00PM GMT

With the UK’s two main parties not-so-quietly campaigning for a general election expected to be held before the end of this year, our UK Economics team held this special briefing on what to expect...

Asset Allocation Update

The future may be brighter for EM equities

We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to...

9th February 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will Treasuries keep ignoring oil prices?

Oil prices have had only limited impact on US Treasury yields recently, and we suspect that this will remain the case in the next couple of years.

5th February 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

How Treasury supply (and demand) might affect yields

The US Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates pushed long-dated yields down, and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday may add to positive sentiment. But we think that a poor fiscal...

30th January 2024 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Will energy equities ever recover?

The stock prices of companies in the energy sector (mostly oil & gas firms) have largely underperformed the rest of the stock market recently, and we doubt they’ll do much better in the foreseeable...

26th January 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Latin American equities may remain laggards

While we expect equities around the world to rebound – as a stock market bubble inflates on the back of growing hype around AI – we suspect that Latin American stock markets will keep lagging.

24th January 2024 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The impact of AI on non-US stock markets

While we think that enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI) will mean that equities in the US keep outperforming this year, we see scope for equities in the rest of the world to fare quite well...

19th January 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We expect yield curves to normalise this year

Government bond yield curves in the US, Germany, and the UK seem to be once again on the path towards “normalisation”, or “disinversion”, as short-term yields are close to breaking below long-term...

15th January 2024 4 mins read

FX Markets Update

LatAm currencies and equities may fare poorly this year

We think that most major currencies in Latin American will fall against the US dollar this year. As a result, the relatively poor returns that we expect from equities in the region in local-currency...

12th January 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Corporate bonds might keep struggling a bit

Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions.

8th January 2024 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones

While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are...

4th January 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

“Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year

While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two.

20th December 2023 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We still see scope for further falls in bond yields

While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to...

12th December 2023 4 mins read

Global Markets Outlook

Bond rally may have a bit further to run

We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we...

11th December 2023 14 mins read