We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under prices. Natural gas and coal prices will also fall owing to ample supply and high stocks.
Meanwhile, loose fiscal and monetary conditions in China this year should support industrial metals prices. But the price of gold may ease back as we think most of the good news on interest rate cuts is factored in. Finally, we expect most agricultural prices to fall this year as supply prospects improve. That said, adverse weather is a major risk to our forecasts.