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Weak demand, but supply problems persist

Despite the global economy entering recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 as the re-routing of Russia’s energy exports away from Europe takes time and proves costly. Non-energy commodities have already slumped from their highs in March-April, but they may have a little further to fall given the sluggish outlook for China’s economy and the problems in its property sector. That said, although the demand outlook has deteriorated, supply of many commodities remains constrained with particularly low stocks of most metals. Accordingly, prices could rise quickly when economic activity starts to recover. The price of gold has fallen sharply in tandem with rising US Treasury yields but the outlook for 2023 is a little brighter if, as we think likely, the Fed starts to cut interest rates later in the year.