Under our baseline scenario, energy prices fall back in H2 2026 as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pick up again. But longer-lasting disruption and/or more extensive damage to infrastructure could keep oil prices in triple-digit territory through 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, the lasting damage to Qatari LNG facilities means that natural gas prices will stay high relative to oil for longer.
Turning to precious and industrial metals, gold prices have fallen since the start of the conflict and we expect them to fall further this year. And industrial metals will continue to face structural headwinds to demand from China, but given that aluminium supply is directly affected by the conflict, prices will fare better than copper.