My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

New Home Sales (May)

While new home sales declined in May, data for homes that are yet to start construction were stronger, as elevated construction costs caused homebuilders to delay projects. But with falling lumber prices likely to support housing starts, we expect new home sales will end 2021 close to 850,000 annualised.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
Continue reading

More from US Housing

US Housing Market Update

Higher rates to prevent rise in homeownership

The odds are stacking up against first-time buyers (FTBs), an important demographic for homeownership. A very limited number of starter homes on the market, higher interest rates, tight credit conditions and a weak outlook for new home sales all point to the rise in the homeownership rate in recent years coming to an end.

5 August 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul.)

Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record-low homebuyer sentiment, we expect home purchase applications will remain subdued in the second half of the year.

3 August 2022

US Housing Market Update

Tight supply limits threat from rising construction

The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been caused by delays in sourcing materials and labour, rather than overbuilding. Many of the uncompleted homes have already been sold and a tight market will help soak up the extra supply even as demand eases. We therefore think the threat from oversupply is small.

29 July 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.

30 June 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.

29 June 2021
↑ Back to top