Existing home sales fell for the first time in five months in November, as record low inventory and the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the spring put a dampener on activity. Record low mortgage rates have provided a boost to affordability, but they are unlikely to fall further. Combined with surging house prices, that implies demand will ease back next year. From 6.5m annualised at the end of this year, we expect sales will have dropped back to 5.7m annualised by end-2021.
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